Getting nervous yet, now that consumers' purchasing decisions are
increasingly being determined by word of mouth, peer-to-peer,
price-comparisons, opinions, reviews, ratings and recommendations*? Then
brace yourself for the full impact of the emerging TWINSUMER trend:
consumers looking for the best of the best, the first of the first, the
most relevant of the relevant increasingly don't connect to 'just any
other consumer' anymore, they are hooking up with (and listening to)
their taste 'twins'; fellow consumers somewhere in the world who think,
react, enjoy and consume the way they do.

In a pre-web world, the fickle and complex workings of word-to-mouth
were limited to real-world friends and a handful of trusted experts.
GENERATION C opened up the content floodgates and moved insights and
recommendations online, but often without much-needed relevance and
context.

Now, through an onslaught of new collaborative filtering software,
millions of new personal profiles, exclusive communities and what have
you, the TWINSUMER phenomenon is turning millions of reviews, ratings
and recommendations into truly valuable results fitting one person's
very particular preferences or even lifestyle. Whether it's a one-off
TWINSUMER union or an ongoing relationship. TWINSUMER therefore isn't
about access to reviewings or ratings or even trust in general (those
are fast becoming hygiene), but about relevance.

* According to the Pew Internet & American Life project, 33 million
American internet users have reviewed or rated someone or something as
part of an online rating system. And Forrester Research found that in
Europe, more than 50% of online consumer electronics buyers have checked
product reviews from other customers, and that 30% of buyers have
actually bought a product online based on someone else's online rating.
15% have written a review themselves

SOLUTIONS AND SURPRISES
So what does this mean for businesses? The TWINSUMER trend doesn't only
help consumers find relevant solutions to targeted questions: as
serendipity flourishes online, the very nature of linked and related
recommendations often leads to impulse and surprise buys as well.

In fact, the TWINSUMER phenomenon is actually one of the key drivers
behind the NOUVEAU NICHE trend: TWINSUMERS pointing each other in the
direction of 'obscure' or 'niche' goods and services they really like;
with obscure and niche as defined by an
advertising-equals-mass-equals-success dominated world. So a business
person in Bogota IS going to find and book a small, independent boutique
hotel in Brussels based on a TWINSUMER recommendation, and an Etta James
fan in Taipei WILL stumble upon rare and forgotten Candi Staton songs
thanks to TWINSUMER software, and so on.

Enough theorizing: how are businesses building and capitalizing on this
trend? Get inspired by the following examples, based on:
- (next generation) collaborative filtering,
- massive proliferation of personal profiles and web sites, and
- a rebirth of true virtual communities.






Collaborative filtering (Wikipedia's definition : the method of making
automatic predictions about the interests of a user by collecting taste
information from many users) has been around for a long time (in
internet years, that is). Pioneering this space was Amazon.com's
recommendation software, which could tell a customer that others who had
also bought Rushdie's Midnight Children, appreciated The God of Small
Things by Arundhati Roy, too. Amazon.com, which also boasts over 6
million product reviews, states that 'the click-through and conversion
rates of recommendations based on collaborative filtering vastly exceed
those of untargeted content such as banner advertisements and top-seller
lists.' Others have followed; collaborative filtering offerings at
iTunes, MSN Music, RealPlayer MusicStore, Napster, TiVo (100 million
ratings by users about approximately 30,000 TV shows and movies!),
Rhapsody and Barnes & Noble have received plenty of attention.

It helps of course that these days nearly 900 million(!) consumers are
online, many of them loading up their virtual shopping carts like
there's no tomorrow, adding to the vast amounts of purchasing details
needed to produce scarily accurate recommendations. And yes, for
e-tailers, besides encouraging impulse buys, collaborative filtering
also spells c-r-o-s-s s-e-l-l-i-n-g if not u-p s-e-l-l-i-n-g.

So what's next? Amazon recently added a 'Discover' tool (still in beta)
to its A9 search engine, which delivers website recommendations to users
based on their search history and aggregated data collected from other
users, and these these recommendations aren't necessarily related to the
subject you went to A9 to look up. Working with Alexa Internet , it
seems only a matter of time until Amazon will combine commerce with
search. But there's more: TRENDWATCHING.COM also spotted the following
emerging collaborative filtering initiatives:




Like Newsbot, Findory uses a collaborative filtering-based algorithm to
recommend interesting news items to its users. In their own words: "We
combine statistical analysis of the article's text, and behavior of
other users with what we know about articles you have previously
viewed."




StoryCode is doing the same for books: taking scored book reviews by
readers, it offers rational, impartial recommendations, based on an
analysis of the "DNA" of stories. (Read: the input and collective wisdom
of ordinary readers). No purchase required.



Increasingly, review/opinion/recommendation websites are encouraging
their reviewers to add personal profiles, allowing real TWINSUMERISM to
blossom. Think everything from someone's age, appearance, occupation,
favorite websites, hobbies, interests, musical taste, to entire
biographies. Anything that will give other consumers a better feel for
how compatible they are with the reviewer, either on a certain topic or
in their entire lifestyle.




img=/assets/images/trends/trendwatching/twinsumer/howard_creech.gif>

Epinions.com , a review site that's part of Shopping.com , is a
granddaddy of TWINSUMERISM . Unlike some other major review sites, it
actively highlights the people behind the reviews. In addition to user
biography pages (where visitors learn about their potential TWINSUMER 's
history, hobbies, preferences and even political views), review lists,
and the ability to comment on reviews, Epinions has introduced "tickets"
to flag users who have violated their User Agreement. Users also build a
Web of Trust, a network of reviewers whose reviews and ratings they have
consistently found to be valuable. And for those of you looking for the
grand scheme of things: last week, eBay announced it would buy
Shopping.com for USD 620 million. Further consolidation in the
e-tailing/profile/comparison/review arena is virtually a given. One to
watch!

Yub.com , a wholly owned subsidiary of Buy.com, calls itself the world's
first shopping social network, with a mission to "provide word-of-mouth
on the web, filtered by trusted relationships." Partnering with the
likes of Sony, Apple iTunes, Target, Gap, Linens 'n Things and
Footlocker, its virtual mall offers 3.3 million products. Yub customers
share their opinions on purchases and everything else in
Friendster-style profiles , and receive a 1% cash-back on every item
they buy. The TWINSUMER spin? When users buy something that is endorsed
in a friend's profile, Yub also gives the friend a 1% cash back (in
Yub's own words: "a reward for bypassing the media middle-man"). A true
TWINSUMER concept, including proper rewards for hard working Master
Twinsumers. Now, edmunds.com, asiahotels.com and tripadvisor.com, please
follow suit!








When consumers rally around a specific topic, recommendations are
instantly relevant, as long as they don't stray too far from the topic
at hand. No wonder virtual communities (which are going through their
third rebirth) are fertile breeding grounds for meeting one's TWINSUMER
. And with Forrester estimating that 60% of online Europeans now connect
with others in mutual interest or support groups, this is one TWINSUMER
area poised to grow quickly. A trend within this trend is to safeguard
the exclusive and focused nature of these communities, to the point
where some sites have ceilings on the maximum number of members, as well
as stringent admission rules, fueling effective TWINSUMERISM. One good example:




aSmallWorld , an invitation-only online community designed for
jet-setters who in many cases already have strong connections with one
another. Think 60,000 like-minded global citizens who share the same
circle of friends, interests, and schedules, and who constantly exchange
recommendations, reviews and suggestions on popular restaurants, hotels,
night clubs, summer and winter resorts, parties, films etc. in over 60
major cities worldwide. And aSmallworld.net is just the tip of the
iceberg: in thousands of defined communities, major purchasing decisions
are made without interference of marketers.

From TWINSUMER to Master Consumer
As the number of exclusive micro-communities and micro-blogs keeps
growing, certain reviewers, bloggers and consumer experts have become so
popular that they appeal to large numbers of other consumers, who will
trust and follow their recommendations and curated choices even if their
profiles fall outside narrowly defined TWINSUMER matches. This is where
TWINSUMERISM meets our CURATED CONSUMPTION trend: leading TWINSUMERS
morph into mass influencers, or mavens, or whatever you want to call
these Master Consumers. From individuals like Josh Rubin ,Grace Bonney
and Josh Spear to user-generated, curated and edited blogs like
gridskipper.com . It's in this space that brands could try to
(carefully) connect with the new curators that are influencing so many
other consumers, in a multitude of industries. Just don't forget you're
the one needing a favor this time.



The TWINSUMER trend is part of an all-encompassing trend changing who
and what consumers rely on when making purchase decisions, both need and
impulse driven. This movement incorporates everything from NOUVEAU NICHE
,ONLINE OXYGEN and CURATED CONSUMPTION , to TRANSPARENCY TYRANNY and
TRYVERTISING . Note how none of these related trends have anything to do
with old fashioned marketing and advertising. Not the producer's spinful
claims advertised on billboards and in commercials dictate what gets
bought, but relevant, experience-based recommendations, suggestions and
advice of TWINSUMERS , supported by ruthless price comparison engines.


THE PLATFORM IS BUILDING
All of this is just the beginning, as the Digital Generation will be the
first group of consumers to grow up with all these new tools and
peer-to-peer options:
- they're ready to contribute
- their tens of millions of personal profiles, blogs, homepages are
already up and running (whether it's on Yub, MSN Space, Blogger,
TheFaceBook.com, Friendster, FunHi, Epinions, Hi5, Cyworld, Meetup,
Common.net, Tribe.net or Cu2.nl)
- they're willing to try out all things NOT mass, and
- they're certainly not impressed by traditional (producer) power and
authority.

Add to that more sophisticated, open source collaborative filtering,
consolidation leading to even bigger sites literally listing, rating and
reviewing ALL products and players, big and small, in any B2C industry,
while partnering with ever-more powerful price comparison engines and
review specialists (long overdue: amazon.com meets Expedia meets
Tripadvisor). Oh, expect reviews to become more visual and real-time and
entertaining (and potentially devastating) as well. And wait for clever
consumers to make serious money from their reviews and suggestions.
Personal profiles will become more multi-media (and thus more
informative) as well. Enough: more to follow in the inevitable TWINSUMER
update.

FOR YOU?
Still not sure if, or how the TWINSUMER trend will impact your industry?
Immerse yourself into any of the sites mentioned above, and you will see
how this is not just about finding books and music, but about virtually
every B2C segment. Do you still know who is telling your customers to do
or buy what? Should you partner with key TWINSUMER players? Can you work
with the Master Consumers and highly active TWINSUMERS, as word of mouth
has to start somewhere? Can you help your customers find what's really
relevant to them, using TWINSUMER tactics on your own web site? Or is it
eventually all about superior performance in order to outdo your
competitors' reviews? In fact, diving into the millions of online
reviews will automatically propel you into the world of CUSTOMER MADE ,
monitoring the ongoing conversations about your brand and performance
between consumers, learning from their invaluable reviews, feedback and
suggestions (yes, everything IS related).
Or, for a change, put on your consumer hat, and observe your own
(changing) purchasing behavior, which may already contain more traces of
TWINSUMERISM than expected. Then apply these learnings to your own
industry or business. Exciting, huh?

Publisher: Trendwatching
One of the world's fastest growing trend agencies, independent and opinionated TRENDWATCHING.COM scans the globe for the most promising consumer trends, insights and related hands-on business ideas. So whether youre a marketer, management consultant, head of a start-up, student, researcher, journalist, business development director, fellow trend watcher, or just interested in staying on top of the latest trends, TRENDWATCHING.COM will instantly bring you up-to-date by getting the worlds most promising trends right in front of you
Web: www.trendwatching.com
Published: march 2005
Market: mens womens
Region: usa

DISCLAIMER
Information in this report relies on sources including Trade Shows, Associations, News Releases, Government Reports and other public sources. Infomat can accept no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information or for loss or damage caused by any use thereof.